Implied probability and break-even calculator

What break-even means

At -110 a win pays $90.91 on a $100 stake and a loss costs $100.00, so breaking even over many bets takes winning 52.4% of them: 1 divided by the decimal odds. Below that rate the price loses money in the long run; above it, it gains. A push (a tie on the line, the stake returned) counts as neither.

Comparing a chance of your own

If the true chance were 55.0%, a -110 price would average +$5.00 per $100 staked over many bets (+2.6 points against the break-even rate), and the fair odds for 55.0% are -122. That is arithmetic on a number you supply: it says nothing about whether the chance is right. Results swing widely over a short run, and estimating a chance well is the hard part.

SportsFathom's models publish their chances before each game and grade every confident call afterwards, hits and misses alike, in a public track record, so you can see how often a stated chance comes true.